Pressure on the strait — established. Flow down ~30% in Q1 2026.

Cargo reroutes — established. Bypass pipelines at record load; sea detours add up to a month and ~$2.5M per voyage.

Freight time becomes freight cost — established. A ship a month late frees up a month later; effective fleet capacity shrinks; rates follow.

Fertilizer rides the same corridors — established as mechanism. No pipeline option exists for it; the detour is carried in full.

Gulf-to-Brazil fertilizer deliveries stretch — operator evidence. Observed on the route, timing layer.

Crop inputs follow — tobacco, corn — operator reading. Held for verification; no figures claimed.